![]() ![]() ![]() Iran lacks committed great power backing, but a conflict in the Middle East could open opportunities elsewhere for Russia and China.ĥ Places World War III Could Erupt: North Korea Similarly, if Iran comes to believe an attack is inevitable, it could pre-empt with all the tools it has available. While the Biden administration doesn’t seem excited about the prospect of war, US allies in Riyadh and Jerusalem could try to trigger a confrontation. If negotiations fail to bring Iran into some kind of a deal, the threat of military action lurks in the background. Negotiations have thus far failed to restore the status quo, as the United States has stumbled over its inability to commit and Tehran has taken a tough attitude. Iran has stepped up its nuclear efforts while improving the sophistication of its missile forces and increasing its covert activities across the region. The US effort to increase military and economic coercion against Iran has failed. In any eventuality, escalation would be difficult for either side to manage, and a fight over access to Taiwan could quickly degenerate into a general war.Īny honest appraisal of US policy towards Iran now recognizes that then- President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action ( JCPOA), better known as the Iran Nuclear Deal, was a disastrous mistake. Finally (and least likely) Taiwan might attempt to make its independence an accomplished fact, which most analysts believe would incur Chinese military intervention. ![]() Alternatively, tensions in other aspects of the US-China relationship might convince Beijing of the likelihood of a change in the US stance towards Taiwan, leading to a pre-emptive attack. China could launch a “bolt from the blue” attack designed to catch US and Taiwanese forces unawares. Despite improvements in Ukrainian forces, most analysts expect that Russia would win quick victories along the border, potentially gaining access to the Ukrainian heartland.Ī war could begin in several different ways. If Russia launches an invasion of Ukraine things could get ugly quickly. The United States and NATO have not responded positively to these overtures, but have notably failed to guarantee Ukraine’s security. Russia has publicly argued that it wants to resolve the issues of Ukraine and of Russia’s relationship with NATO on a permanent basis. Moscow’s long-range problem is its inability to reverse the Western orientation that Kyiv has adopted since 2014. Russia’s immediate concerns involve the Ukrainian acquisition and use of Turkish drones along its border regions, along with a general increase in Ukrainian military power. Over the past six months, Russia has steadily built up forces along the frontier as Kyiv, Moscow, and Washington have traded barbs. ![]() Here are the five most dangerous flashpoints for the eruption of World War III, in descending order of peril:ĥ Places World War III Could Erupt: UkraineĮasily the most likely flashpoint for great power war in 2022 lies along the border between Russia and Ukraine. Crises in the Middle East, Northeast Asia, and the Himalayas continue to smolder. Real conflicts of interest in Eastern Europe and the East China Sea have set the table for the first serious great-power conflict in decades. Entering 2022, the world looks more dangerous than it has at any time since the late 1980s. ![]()
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